Hints of a Bottom in U.S. Stocks and Euro

The mirage of economic recovery conjured up by our political leaders and a credulous news media dimmed and flickered in the harsh light of reality on Friday, when grim employment figures for May sent stocks into one of their steepest dives of the year. Although 431,000 jobs were added last month, most of the workers were census-takers hired temporarily by the government. Even that figure evidently was ginned-up, since it appears that many of the workers had been laid off during intervals when there was little to do, only to be rehired later and recounted. But the bottom line for private-sector employment was a paltry 41,000 new hires, the smallest increase since January.

Wall Street did not exactly take the news in stride, and the broad averages fell as though the data had caught most traders by surprise. Index futures had head-faked overnight to trap bulls, but by day�s end the blue chip Dow Average was down 323 points. We would caution bears against becoming overly confident, however, since there are several technical factors coming into alignment that augur a potentially sharp reversal in the broad averages and some important trading vehicles that we track. For one, at Friday�s low of 1059, the E-Mini S&Ps was within 37 points of a longstanding �Hidden Pivot� target of ours at 1022. That�s equivalent to about 300 more points in the Dow, and it could easily be reached this week if sellers continue to hit stocks on Monday morning as they did on Friday.

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